detect-o-vision » cuban baseball
detect-o-vision » cuban baseball
february 11, 2006: 4:06 pm: posted by : drdetecto ....>
31 responses to “
cuban baseball”
sabrmatt says: february 11th, 2006 at 6:36 pm quote
i believe yubet started his cuban career at age 17…someone correct me if i’m wrong. but he played from when he started til when he was 22 when he defected…5+ years of cuban baseball…and he was thought of in cuba as the ideal #2 hitter…he stole bases…played electrifying defense…made great contact, and hit the ball hard into the gaps. how many 20 year olds do you know who are htought of as the perfect #2 hitter in aa…let alone aaa? there are a few every year who are that skilled at 20…but they’re lauded as uber-prospects…and when they field like yubet fields…they’re thought of as untouchable…
oh wait…the mariners think bet is untouchable, right?
marc w. says: february 12th, 2006 at 11:06 pm quote
there was a great article on cuban league translations at bp - it’s here:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3781
the player that occasioned this research was kendry morales, whom the angels had just signed.
basically: league average ba is around .300
clay davenport pegs the league around carolina league, maybe sally league. certainly above the short season leagues, though.
others argue that there simply aren’t enough data points, and that you’re going to get translations that look optimistic when a star prospect plays in a league with a ’shallow’ talent pool.
from the looks of things (and davenport used five years of league-wide data), it looks to be right on the cusp of low-a and high-a.
sabrmatt says: february 12th, 2006 at 11:19 pm quote
alright…so betancourt was hitting .320, stealing bases, and playing good d in high a ball at age 20.
isn’t that a pretty good thing to say about a player?
marc w says: february 13th, 2006 at 9:11 am quote
yes, it’s a great thing to say about a player. it’s not, you know, crazy-good, or the kind of thing that leads one to run out of superlatives, but it’s good. i mean, asdrubal cabrera put together a darn good half season in high-a this year, with great defense. he was 19. is he untouchable? i doubt it, though to be fair that has a lot to do with mr. betancourt. he’s a great prospect, same as betancourt. but let’s be fair here: cabrera and betancourt are not unique, or even once-in-a-generation type talents. that’s fine, that’s not what we’re asking for. what the m’s need is a great defender, and a guy who can hit for a decent average, slap some xbhs round the gaps, and be a potent force at the bottom of the line-up (i just don’t see a #2 hitter with such a low obp. that’s just me; reasonable people may differ). that would transform the line-up. and it’s entirely possible that he develops some hr power - 10-15hrs, not 25-30. i’m just not seeing what more optimistic (more optimistic than 285/315/440) projections are based on…
my take on the enigmatic yuniesky here: http://marinersmorsels.blogspot.com/2006/02/betancourt-dichotomy.html
marc w says: february 13th, 2006 at 2:01 pm quote
more to doc’s point, you can find stats on cuban baseball here:
http://www.inder.co.cu/indernet/competencias/sinfo/snacional45/45serie.htm
go to the sidebar on the left and click estatisticas and click through to get to batting stats. you don’t really need spanish skills to make sense of stats, thankfully.
hat tip: mariners revolution
drdetecto says: february 13th, 2006 at 3:22 pm quote
thanks amigos!
saw davenport’s opinion on cuban baseball … i’d guess that’s the extreme low end on their translations.
it’s possible davenport is right, but it would hardly be possible to set the translations any lower, is my own guess. i mean, would a pitcher out of the sally league land with the yankees and immediately dominate the postseason?
still and all, cuban baseball may be no higher than that, i dunno. i’m guessing they’re more like aa with the couple dozen mlb studs mixed in.
as matt notes, if you peg cuba as low as davenport does, betancourt is then — a terrific talent.
if you peg them any higher, betancourt’s a wonderkind, i guess…
keep the good stuff comin’ here…
marc w says: february 13th, 2006 at 3:51 pm quote
hm, it’s hard to say if it’s the extreme low end or not. the trick is that the low minors here are maintained at a roughly equivalent talent level. that’s why jose lopez is where he is and why, i don’t know, dustin delluchi was at aa at a much older age. the cuban league doesn’t allow for that sort of thing, so you’ve got a jumble of talent from ‘nice guy to have on your community college team’ to aaa/mlb level. the whole thing sort of settles out at sally league level (and i can see that - this isn’t a gigantic population base to draw from, after all), but that doesn’t mean that contreras or hernandez were ‘sally league land’ pitchers. there’s no way in hell an american league team would leave a 27 year old ace in the sally league, but in cuba, there’s no other option. my guess is that there aren’t a couple of dozen mlb-caliber guys down there. too many ‘can’t miss’ prospects are now playing in the mexican league, and not mlb (remember ariel prieto?). i really wonder whether there are more than 6-9 real mlb starters in that league.
so: we’ve got a league where the average talent is a-ball-esque, and a league with a highly skewed talent pool. we’ve got a league with an average ba of .300 or so, and a kid who plays *great* defense and hits around or maybe a bit above league average at a young age. that tells me you’ve got a kid with more than a good shot at the big leagues, but it doesn’t, in an of itself, scream ‘hall of fame’ or ‘perennial all-star.’ that’s just the stats, of course. i get much more excited just watching the guy play.
sabrmatt says: february 13th, 2006 at 4:18 pm quote
i think betancourt was being held back in cuba. his statistics probably don’t show his absolute ability at those young ages. he got better as he progressed through the mariner system (his statistics didn’t go down even though the challenge went up)…i have to believe he’s rising rapidly toward a higher peak than his cuban experience might dictate.
marc w says: february 14th, 2006 at 2:12 pm quote
i suppose we’ll see, matt. looking at the stats though, you’ve got to admit that there are a number of more ‘intriguing’ prospects purely from an offensive standpoint. either anyone above league average and below 25 years of age is being held back, or maybe betancourt was right about where he should be (probably a bit below): single a ball at age 20-21. i think he’ll be a good player, but if you think he’s special, what do we do with yuliesky gourriel, who’s leading the league in home runs at age 21? the guy went for .319 with an 894 slugging in the world cup. or check out dayan viciedo, who’s currently sporting a .357 average with a .585 slugging percentage for villa clara. dayan viciedo is 16 years old.
now maybe he was held back, but i think it’s fair to expect a drop in average because, from what i can see, no one strikes anyone out on that island. the league k/bb ratio is below 1. of course, that’s countered by yuniesky’s growth as a hitter as he becomes accustomed to the league/pitchers, as he works on his craft and as he gets older. all in all, i still say you extropolate his stats at aaa tacoma to a full year and there you have a fairly optimistic (but entirely reachable) projection for betancourt’s peak. anything more than that is squeezing a lot more out of the cuban league stats than i think they can support; there’s got to be some reason why he wasn’t as good as others in cuba/texas league/whatever. that’s fine, maybe there are such things, and doc’s put forth a reasonable theory, but we should just be clear we’re leaving the realm of stats and objective data behind.
sabrmatt says: february 14th, 2006 at 3:11 pm quote
the objective reasoning has extreme limits when dealing with someone like this…but i agree it’s possible you’re right. worst case scenario imho is that we have a .280/.325/.430 hitting ozzie smith glove at short…and uh…i’ll take that.
marc w says: february 14th, 2006 at 4:26 pm quote
i’m not trying to belabor this point needlessly, and i really, really want you to be right, but how can you look at his stats, and the stats of other young shortstops, and come to the conclusion that .280/.325/.430 is the worst case scenario? what’s the ‘optimistic’ forecast? alex rodriguez? what’s the median? where’s this coming from?
or, to put it another way, why does objective reasoning just not work when yuniesky’s involved?
元気！！！ says: february 15th, 2006 at 1:36 am quote
it’s simply the lack of proof.
you can saber all you want, but if you don’t have any numbers to forecast with, then the numbers you end up with are pointless as well. pecota can’t do jack because betancourt had almost as many pro abs as i did when the year started: none. mles, davenport translations, they’re all worthless when you have so few numbers.
so when you get there, you have to fly by your other instruments. scouting, team actions (promotions/demotions), your own eyeballs, etc. the drd gang, ussm gang and the rest of em’ all have different views on ways to apply saber to unknowns like yuniesky. drd simply sees more potential than some of the others. i happen to agree with the drd when it comes to yubet, especially the similarities to the fast track that the yankees put on soriano.
marc w says: february 15th, 2006 at 10:08 am quote
potential isn’t the issue. i’m just not sure how we arrived at a place where even a talented hitter’s *most pessimistic* forecast is basically all-star level. there’s a place for unbridled enthusiasm and optimism, but my god, what did you do when jeremy reed hit .397 in his first mlb tour of duty? or, again, what would you have said about the young garry templeton?
this has nothing at all to do with mles or pecota. it’s well and good to say that the izturis comp is, shall we say, on the low-end of the spectrum. but now we seem to be extrapolating from a lack of available data that the sky’s the limit on this guy - that he’s a hall of famer because he hit .256/.290/.350 after a long layoff. he’ll be a solid player, and he’s got the potential to be an all-star. but when ‘all-star’ is identified as the *worst case scenario* then it seems something’s gone a bit haywire.
soriano is similar in that he spent three years playing in a foreign league before arriving in the us and shooting up the organizational ladder. but soriano always showed some pop, like his .200 isop as a 21 yo in aa. betancourt hasn’t yet done that, and that’s fine: he doesn’t need to hit 30 bombs to be effective. so…why is soriano the best comp again? the white sox once put mike caruso on the fast track too, and he ended up hitting .300 for a full season as a ss at age 21. the fast-track thing isn’t some guarantee of success.
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del piero says: july 9th, 2007 at 11:03 am quote
i’m afraid most of you don’t have a solid idea of what you’re talking about here. i saw yuniesky betancourt play in cuba at least two years.
and for those who consider the cuban baseball league on the aa level, let me tell you this:
yuniesky betancourt always played 2b in cuba, because he does not come close to eduardo paret, his teamate and ss of the villa clara team. he never hit in any position better than second at bat.
now he is playing in the major leagues as a ss, and has also been hitting 3rd in the lineup, and i garanty that if he comes back to cuba this week (per say), he would still be second to the ss of villa clara and would never hit 3rd in the rotation.
i mean, isnt that clear???
contreras, jose contreras, when in the world did he win 16 decision in the cuban “aa” league??? when???
marc w. says: july 9th, 2007 at 2:30 pm quote
well, at least we’re not the only ones who don’t have a solid idea what we’re talking about.
yuniesky betancourt does indeed play ss, but outside of an ill-conceived stint in the 3 hole last year, he’s consistently 8th or 9th. he’s a bottom of the order hitter. that he hit 3 for a while tells you a lot about the m’s difficulties that year, but not so much about betancourt, or the talent level in cuba/us/japan/etc.
as for the contreras example, c’mon… yes, he didn’t win 16 decisions in cuba- the season’s 90 games long! ok, so he went 13-4 with an era under 2. extrapolated to a us season, that’s a 24-7 record.
look, some cubans are clearly mlb ready (i’d love to see what yuliesky gourriel could do), but that’s not saying much about the *overall* quality of the league. it’s the same with any small league - the gaps between the best players and the average ones is just huge. ergo, you can’t say that cuba is clearly better than aa because betancourt is an mlb regular. just like i can’t say that it’s clearly below aa because serguey linares and yoslan herrera are getting hammered in high a and aa respectively, despite being somewhat old compared to the league.
drdetecto says: july 9th, 2007 at 7:26 pm quote
del piero, if you’ve been on the scene, i personally would love to hear your judgments on cuban baseball.
…………………
don’t get slowed down by marc’s own position that cuban baseball is overrated. that’s fair enough, but he doesn’t necessarily speak for many people here.
what we’d like is your own judgment, to compare to his. don’t sweat his reaction ;- ) … most of our reactions will be great interest.
……………………
also wouldn’t mind knowing how you get on the internet in cuba, or how you get back and forth between here and there ;- )
thanks,
dr detecto
drdetecto says: july 9th, 2007 at 7:35 pm quote
my first q’s for you amigo would be…
you would say that the top 20 cuban players are equivalent to … what? mlb regulars? aaa players? mlb all-stars?
you’d say the top 50, 100 cuban players are equivalent to … ? the worst cuban regular is what, a aaa player, a class-a player, or what?
…………………..
what is your opinion on why el duque was such a devastating postseason pitcher until he turned 60? :- ) he was 12-3, 2.55 lifetime in october and for 1998-2002, he was one of the great mlb postseason pitchers who ever lived.
orlando hernandez was a defining player on arguably the best yankee dynasty in history.
…………………….
your opinion on why some cuban stars make an impact and some don’t?
would also love to hear your predictions for yuniesky betancourt and kendry morales ….
drdetecto says: july 9th, 2007 at 7:39 pm quote
at baseball-reference they have a catalogue of the 153 mlb players who were born in cuba. not all learned to play in cuba, but many did, to one age or another.
included are tony perez, bert campaneris, jose canseco, el duque, mike cuellar, minnie minoso, rafael palmeiro, etc.
……………….
the wbc offered cuba its first real chance to do its mlb arguing on the field :- ) and as you know, cuba finished 2nd to japan, ahead of the mlb all-stars.
here is a summary article as to cuba’s accomplishments in the wbc. they faced a lot of skeptics going into the tournament, and they dropped a lot of jaws during it.
even if you assumed cuba had a lot of talent, they still (like japan) seemed to have the problem that their players had never had a chance to develop against the best of aaa and mlb. in other words, how good would danny haren be — if he had never had a chance to pitch above junior college?
yet the cuban team, itself having no major leaguers, consistently beat teams that were loaded with mlb legends — squads that were often better teams than, say, the indians or tigers. as did japan beat these loaded mlb all-star teams.
the thing that we overlook is, that in aa and aaa, the best players get promoted out. in the crucible of “isolation” island baseball, 30-year-old sandy koufaxes, daisuke matsuzakas and orlando hernandezes stay around forever. the greatest talents of cuba and japan stay there and compete against the kids.
then when you open the gate and let them run against the big dogs …. they turn out to bite a lot harder than they bark :- )
……………….
the original d-o-v article above offers some of my own thoughts as to the nature of cuban and japanese “lost island” baseball.
del piero says: july 11th, 2007 at 2:06 pm quote
i just lost the message i was writting so im going to do it again.
marc, so you say contreras won 13-4, that still adds up 17 decisions in a “aa-level” league. yubet is playing in one of the best hitting teams in the mlb, yet he eventually hit 3rd and plays ss. something he was unable to do in villa clara, which is by the way one of the leading teams back there. i’m confident he would not find a spot as a ss in many teams back there, and they talk about him being a future candidate to a gold glove here?? i wonder what would they say if they saw eduardo paret, or the retired german mesa, etc.
he was an average player in the cuban league, promising, but nothing more. neither would he have a chance to play for the current national cuban team.
dr. detecto, i know these guys. i’ve talked to yuliesky gourriel’s father, and former player of the national team. antonio munoz, former 1b of the national team, went to my uncle’s house on a regular basis. i’ve been inches away from contreras, and i’ve been sitting next to carlos tabares and kendry morales. i had in my hands the bat of german mesa, a guy that kept rey ordonez (three times mlb gold glove winner) sitting in the bench. i mean, this used to be my daily routine.
isnt the world baseball classic evidence of the quality of cuban baseball?? how did the two “isolated-aa-level” countries ended up in the final?? why couldnt cy young winners bartolo colon and johan santana stop the cuban team?? where were the mlb superstars albert pujuls, david ortiz, tejada, abreu, magglio ordonez, vizquel, alou, soriano… do i need to continue???
regarding your questions, the top 100 cuban players would be major league players this week, if they are allowed to come here with their families.
after a complete season, you would have a couple of contenders for the cy young, 1 or 2 gold glove winners, and a few all-star players.
you say el duque stopped dominating in big moments?? go ask boston two seasons ago, and the astros.
marc you wonder about gourriel, well he wont do any better than kendry morales. why? because he would go from being a nationwide worshiped teenager living in a tropical island, to a lone guy (living in… washington??) that doesnt even understand the words of his future coach greeting him. with his family being persecuted back in cuba and probably released from their work positions. knowing that he will never again be allowed to return to his hometown, to his people. that makes some extra work for them.
besides that, kendry morales belongs to the angels, which is a highly competitive team. if given the opportunity to play on a regular basis, he’ll become a switch hitter vlad guerrero, so to say.
now marc, we’re talking about a 16 team league on a country the size of… arkansas or something??? there are gaps that need to be filled in teams that belong to very low populated provinces back in cuba, so there are players aa or aaa level. most of the regular players, can play in the mlb. you mention herrera and someone else, i honestly dont know who they are. take in response the case of yunel escobar, hitting over 300 with the braves in his firt year, a player that i do know, and that never had a regular spot in industriales, his hometeam.
drdetecto says: july 11th, 2007 at 2:15 pm quote
that is a riveting post, del piero. thanks mucho!
regarding your questions, the top 100 cuban players would be major league players this week, if they are allowed to come here with their families.
after a complete season, you would have a couple of contenders for the cy young, 1 or 2 gold glove winners, and a few all-star players.
not far off of what my own assessment of the npb would be, though i don’t know if it’s as many as 100, and whether they would need any developmental time before hitting their peaks.
great to get your take on it. best to you.
drdetecto says: july 11th, 2007 at 2:21 pm quote
… i guess now that you mention it, there could be 50 hitters, 50 starters + relievers who could come from the central and pacific leagues and compete decently in the nl/al.
maybe that number isn’t a bad one, as far as japan goes.
of course, there may be 100 players and pitchers in aaa who could compete decently in the majors… so the number may not be as extreme as it sounds…
actually, what am i thinking. of course there are 25 hitters and 25 pitchers in the pcl (and more in the il) who could *compete* in the majors. whether they are “major league players” is another subject. but yeah.
sabrmatt says: july 11th, 2007 at 2:46 pm quote
the mariners have like 6 in tacoma who could compete in the bigs.
timothy says: july 11th, 2007 at 3:46 pm quote
yuni before age 21, when he left cuba, is not exactly a direct comp for yuni at 23-25, when he’s been in the mlb. he certainly wouldn’t have been starting at 21, and didn’t start until halfway through his age 23 season. naturally, players who leave cuba when they are young are going to be better when they are older, and thus are going to play more improved roles. it means they’re better, not that the players around them are worse.
del piero says: august 2nd, 2007 at 9:33 am quote
timothy, even now that betancourt is a more experienced player, the gap between him and eduardo paret, the ss of his former team, is the size of texas. he comes from a school of highly defensive players, where they play the so called “small baseball” and every run counts.
sabrmatt says: august 2nd, 2007 at 11:41 am quote
just because there are a few players who might be better than betancourt in cuba doesn’t mean all of cuba is a stronger league than the majors. from what i saw of the best team cuba could build for the wbc, they had lots of raw talent but were extremely erratic, undisciplined and prone to fits of spectacularly poor play.
del piero says: august 30th, 2007 at 4:38 pm quote
well sabrmatt, no one has said that the cuban league is stronger than the mlb.
now, do i need to remind you of the teams who played the final of the wbc?? it seems that the “spectacularly poor play” didnt work that bad. the only “spectacularly poor play” of the wbc in fact, was the early exit of team usa, if any.
and there are facts that are only known within the island. the best 3 or 4 starting pitchers didnt make the trip, ask the government why. the 16 year old super star viciedo didnt make it either. and if you think i dont have a basis to say any of this things, ask any cuban over 30 years old and they will all tell you that that is the worst team cuba ever formed, so they didnt do that bad.
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jones, adam
lahair, bryan
lawton, matt
lopez, jose
lopez, jose (may 2007)
lopez, jose (oct 2007)
mench, kevin
morse, mike
perez, eduardo
petagine, roberto
pierre, juan
quiroz, guillermo
ramirez, manny
sexson, richie 2006
shealy, ryan
snelling, chris
soriano, alfonso
soriano, alfonso (roto trade concepts)
thome, jim
torrealba-estrada
truinfel, carlos
tuiasosopo, matt
vina, fernando
vina, fernando, st 06
weight and wait
wilkerson, brad
wilson, craig
x - why not more negative potd's?
z - 100 ancient sportspot potd's
potd pitchers
appier, kevin
arroyo, bronson
baek, cha seung
baldwin, andrew
barb, andrew
bard, daniel
batista, miguel (and rel)
bedard, erik
betances, dellin
blackley, travis
bullpen 06 (april forecast)
burnett, a.j.
butler, tony
byrd, paul
campillo, jorge
carvajal, marcos
chick, travis
chin-hui tsao
clemens, roger
clement, matt
colon, bartolo
contreras, jose
cruceta, francisco
cruceta, francisco (mechanics)
cruceta, francisco (pitching strategy)
dnra (sabrmatt)
era vs fip
feierabend, ryan
felix-dicek chart, i
franklin, ryan
fruto, e (mechanics)
fruto, e (performance)
green, sean
guardado, eddie
guthrie, jeremy
hamels, cole
haren, danny
hernandez, felix (snakebit '06)
hochevar, luke
hochevar, luke (mechanics)
hoffman, trevor
igawa, kei
iriki, yusaku
jennings, jason (& coors effect)
jimenez, cesar
jj putz' 4-out saves
johnson, jason
johnson, randy (and hr/f theory)
kahn, stephen
kennedy, ian
kim, byung-hyun
kuroda, hiroki
lester, jon
lidge, brad
lincecum, tim
lincecum, tim (mechanics)
lincoln, brad
livingston, bobby
loaiza, esteban
lowe, mark
mateo, julio
matsuzaka, daisuke
meche, gil
meche, gil (and hr/fb ratio)
meche, gil (deception)
miller, andrew
millwood, kevin
morris, matt
morrow, brandon
moyer in safeco
moyer's age-43 season
moyer, jamie
nageotte, clint
nichiguchi, fumiya
oswalt, roy
papelbon, jonathan
putz, jj
reitsma, chris
rowland-smith, ryan
saito, kazumi
scherzer, max
schmidt, jason
sherrill, george
slg vs bb gradient
sp archetypes (brandon morrow)
sp changes (how frequent?)
strategy - pitching backwards
suppan, jeff
sutter, bruce
thomson, john
tillman, chris
toyoda, kiyoshi
wang, chien-ming
washburn, jarrod
washburn, jarrod ii
weaver, jeff
weaver, jered
wells, david
willis, dontrelle
z - 100 ancient sportspot potd's
zito trade
zito, barry
potd other
$25-35m for 2007? (bedir)
$260 roto (and inflation)
$28m for 2007? (matthew c)
* d-o-v's "favorite toy" *
100+ ancient sportspot potd's
4-out saves
6 great managers
about dr. detecto
alexander, shaun
ann coulter, and debate vs censorship
batspeed defined
bavasi, bill
boras, scott
branch, deion
chaves, rafael
cox, bobby
cuban baseball
dnra (sabrmatt)
epstein, theo
era vs fip
fa dollars vs arb dollars
flexible benches
game theory: aggressiveness vs safety
giving the hitter up for the runner
hargrove in 07
hargrove in a box
hargrove, mike (positive effect on vets)
hit the ball to the right side?
if carl everett goin' heaven, seattle don't wanna go
johnson, davey
la russa and jocketty
mariner civics
mazzone, leo
minnesota twins (etowncoug)
net present value
on pecota and ai
on tilt
padna's ponderings
pitcher transitions npb-mlb
potd: technology
prodigies, pushing minor leaguers
r statistic (sabr matt)
rel (reliability, & m. batista)
ron blomberg
roto trade concepts (alfonso soriano)
sample size misnomer
sempai, kohai, & team captains
stars & scrubs 101
stottlemyre, mel
strategy - pitching backwards
teflon managers
the oakland a's
the zone
tht & david pinto
wallach, tim
wisdom vs iq (dr naka)
video & media
a south side ws
bavasi's fa road race
burnett to canada?
doug eddings
hot matsuzaka news
ichiro video
matsuzaka clues - top 10
trading ichiro - top 10
kjr sportsradio
yahoo! dept.
bavasi plays for checkmate
brad wilkerson
catching a japanese star
david wells
first 3 min. of la's demise
hoffman's zamboni
jorge campillo
manny happy returns
olkin the m's new saberdweeb
on a.i. - (pecota)
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