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posted at 03:55 pm et, 11/13/2007
wag the blog: what should hillary do?
from her stumble over drivers' licenses in the philadelphia debate to the controversy over a planted question at an iowa town hall, it's been a rough few weeks for sen. hillary rodham clinton (d-n.y.).
clinton's best chance to change that narrative comes thursday night when the democratic field gathers for -- another -- debate, this one sponsored by cnn and held in las vegas.
to date, clinton herself has avoided directly responding to attacks by her rivals, choosing instead to laugh off the criticism -- literally -- and attempt to refocus things on president bush and republicans. of late, however, clinton has given some signal that her strategy may be changing. in the philadelphia debate and then again in her speech at the jefferson-jackson dinner in des moines over the weekend, clinton said: "change is just a word without the strength and experience to back it up."
for today's wag the blog, we want to know whether you think clinton will aggressively push back against sen. barack obama (ill.) or former sen. john edwards (n.c.) on thursday night. and, if you believe she will, what should she say to best draw a contrast between herself and obama/edwards.
let's keep personal taunts etc. out of the mix here. wag the blog is designed to foster intelligent discussion among members of the fix community; in that vein, we'll pluck the most thoughtful comments out and feature them in a post of their own later this week.
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posted at 02:29 pm et, 11/13/2007
new jersey's 3rd: republicans on the defensive
the news out of new jersey last week wasn't good for republicans. rep. jim saxton (r) was retiring, leaving behind a swing district in an area of the country that has grown increasingly inhospitable to republicans.
while national republicans did their best to put a brave face on their chances, new jersey's 3rd joins arizona's 1st, illinols' 11th, minnesota's 3rd, new mexico's 1st, ohio's 15th and ohio's 16th as major pickup targets for democrats next november.
here's our sketch of the district:
geography: the fix has driven all over new jersey (the perils of being married to a field hockey coach) and saxton's 3rd district includes some of the most beautiful territory in the garden state. located in south-central new jersey, the district includes the city of cherry hill and large swaths of suburban dwellers who work in philadelphia.
electoral results: saxton has held the seat since 1984 with democrats making an occasional run at him. the last serious race saxton faced was in 2000 when democrats recruited then-cherry hill mayor susan bass levin (d) as their candidate. bass levin was an erratic candidate and saxton was able to co-opt her support with a number of leading democratic groups and eventually won with a comfortable 57 percent to 41 percent margin. saxton won easily in 2002, 2004 and 2006. the ease of saxton's re-election margins belies the competitive nature of the district; while bush won it narrowly (51 percent) in 2004, he lost it by 10 points to then-vice president al gore in 2000.
candidates: state sen. john adler (d) was recruited into the race by national democrats to take on saxton. with the incumbent now out of the race, adler is likely to be the party's choice. he raised $229,000 between july 1 and sept. 30, a total that includes a $190,000 transfer from his state senate account. adler was elected to the state senate in 1991 and spent seven years in the 1990s as assistant minority leader. for republicans, the key is to find a candidate with a base in burlington county -- the swing area of the district. two names are mentioned: state sen. diane allen and burlington county sheriff jean stansfield. allen ran for the senate in 2002, finishing second to wealthy businessman doug forrester in the republican primary.
outlook: this is a very tough hold for republicans -- especially in a presidential year. republicans note that they made gains in burlington county in last week's state elections including winning an open state senate seat. combine the district's democratic tendencies, the huge cost of television advertising and the huge financial lead national democrats hold over their republican counterparts, however, and this seat looks ripe for the taking.
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posted at 06:00 am et, 11/13/2007
according to polls, fred thompson foundering
the american electorate is a fickle mistress. just ask former sen. fred thompson (r-tenn.).
polling numbers are stacking up against former sen. fred thompson.
when thompson announced his candidacy for president just after labor day most national polls showed him running a close second behind former new york city mayor rudy giuliani and the majority of state polls had him in the top three.
no longer. thompson's campaign has yet to take off as expected and voters -- especially in crucial early states like iowa, new hampshire and florida.
the most recent data comes from new hampshire where two surveys were released over the weekend. the first, conducted by theuniversity of new hampshire for the boston globe, put thompson in sixth (yes, sixth) place with just three percent of the vote. (former massachusetts gov. mitt romney led the way with 32 percent.) in a marist university poll thompson again took sixth place with just five percent support. to be clear, thompson was never a frontrunner in new hampshire but polls conducted in the run-up to his announcement and just after he formally entered the race show him regularly polling in double digits.
thompson's shrinking support is apparent in other early states as well. the last three polls taken in iowa put thompson in fourth, fifth and fourth place, respectively, and his high water mark in any of those surveys is 11 percent. in florida, too, thompson appears to be fading. a new poll conducted for the miami herald and st. petersburg times showed thompson in fifth place (eight percent) behind giuliani (36 percent), romney (19 percent), arizona sen. john mccain (12 percent) and former arkansas gov. mike huckabee (nine percent).
in thompson's defense, not all of the news in early states is bad for him. two out of the last three polls conducted in south carolina have showed him in the lead and florida polling has been all over the board with several surveys conducted in the last month putting thompson in second place behind giuliani.
and, polling aside, thompson's campaign received a nice boost yesterday when he secured the backing of the national right to life committee. the nrlc's endorsement could be a crucial validator for thompson who is hoping to coalesce social conservatives behind his candidacy -- a strategy that has been pre-empted somewhat by the surprising growth of huckabee of late.
still, the overall trajectory of thompson's campaign -- as judged via polling -- is downward. it's clear the initial fervor and excitement over the tv-star-turned politician has worn off and voters have not flocked to thompson as many people expected.
the problem for thompson is that there isn't an obvious way to turn this narrative around. he is not a flashy campaigner and his fundamental message -- competent conservatism -- isn't the sort of thing that builds a grassroots movement.
the truth is that thompson needs a second act -- pardon the pun. he needs to find a way to differentiate himself from the field on an issue (he appears to be trying to do just that on social security) or some broader theme (electability, a return to conservative principles etc.). he also needs to find away to put the "lazy" storyline to rest once and for all as it could well complicate his efforts to sell himself to voters.
he's got 51 days left before the iowa caucuses. as we know from the 2004 democratic nomination fight, that's plenty of time to turn things around. but thompson needs to start soon. like, now.
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posted at 04:04 pm et, 11/12/2007
fixcam: week in preview
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the democratic presidential race turns west this week as the candidates prepare for thursday's debate in sin city. it's the first time the candidates will all appear on stage together since the philadelphia debate where sen. hillary rodham clinton (n.y.) came under withering attack from her democratic rivals and made an unusual stumble when asked whether she supported granting drivers' licenses to illegal immigrants.
it's hard to imagine sen. barack obama (ill.) or former sen. john edwards (n.c.) changing their aggressive tactics on thursday night. the real question is whether clinton will continue to ignore the charges thrown at her or hit back. either way, she could lose. if she ignores her rivals, she runs the risk of having their attacks stick while if she engages, it could be read as a sign that she is nervous about her standing.
in short, this debate, like the entirety of the democratic race, revolves around clinton and how she interacts with those seeking to knock off her frontrunner label.
it's not just the presidential race that has a western tinge to it this week. the big news on the senate front is that rep. tom udall (d) has decided to run for the open seat of sen. pete domenici (r). udall, who had ruled out a candidacy just a week ago, is regarded by national strategists as their strongest possible candidate. more on udall and this race on the fix later this week....
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posted at 11:51 am et, 11/12/2007
matzzie to head democratic soft money effort
even as the democratic primary fight enters the final stretch, plans are proceeding apace among party strategists to build an independent money machine that will rival or eclipse what they created in 2004, when donors poured millions into two key outside-the-party organizations -- america coming together and the media fund.
tom matzzie has been hired to run a new effort for 2008, which he has described in an e-mail as a $100 million-plus venture organized around "issues and character." matzzie is leaving his post as the washington director of moveon.org to take the job. he did not return an e-mail seeking comment on his new position.
the news of matzzie's hiring comes roughly two weeks after a group of the largest donors in the democratic party gathered in washington to discuss where they'll put their money during the 2008 race. one of the attendees -- hollywood producer steve bing -- is said to be one of the leading financial forces behind the organization matzzie has been hired to head.
those familiar with overall democratic fundraising plans for 2008 say that everything is still in a very nascent stage, but party heavyweights are clearly on the march -- setting up various organizations that may be integrated into a larger uber-fundraising effort, perhaps under mattzie's group.
last week john podesta, a longtime democratic operative who runs the center for american progress, and anna burger, a high-ranking official at the service employees international union formed a soft-money 527 group called the "fund for america."
meanwhile, republicans are not standing idle. according to a terrific new york times story today, the gop is likely to use the organization freedom's watch, as one of the primary vehicles for their efforts to influence the outcome of the 2008 election.
soft money is even finding its way into the presidential primaries. rick reed (one of the men behind the swift boat veterans for truth in 2004) has a new group funding ads currently on the air in south carolina, promoting sen. john mccain (r-ariz.) among other candidates.
mccain, one of the leading advocates for campaign finance reform, has decried the ads and asked for them to be taken down.
"while we have great respect for mccain, we have no intention of pulling down ads...or reducing our efforts to educate the america public, " said reed in a statement that lavished praise on the arizona senator late last week. "we will, in fact, announce next week our plans to significantly expand out activities with respect to our television campaign."
this is only the beginning. watch for any number of these third party groups to crop up over the coming months as wealthy people on both sides of the partisan divide seek to influence the debate.
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posted at 06:53 pm et, 11/ 9/2007
parsing the polls: why it's so hard to poll iowa
the iowa caucuses will again lead off the presidential selection process and -- especially on the democratic side -- the candidates are treating it as the whole shebang, knowing that a win or a loss there could serve to kick-start or destroy their campaigns.
at the moment sen. hillary rodham clinton (n.y.) holds a narrow lead on the democratic side while former gov. mitt romney -- fueled by millions in ad spending in the state -- has a consistent double-digit lead over his next contender.
romney went up with ads months ago in iowa and has worked the state harder than any other republican candidate. the money spent as well as the grassroots campaigning have paid off as romney has without question the strongest organization in the state. that organization was on display in august when romney won the iowa straw poll -- a key early test of support in iowa. clinton, for her part, started slow in iowa and has managed to pick up steam thanks in large part to the organization know-how of her iowa state director teresa vilmain.
these results have been born out in 11 polls -- six on the republican side, five on the democratic side --that were conducted in the last month alone. the polls were produced by american research group, university of iowa, strategic vision, rasmussen reports, insider advantage and selzer & co.
.
here's a look at the results:
polling group
date
giuliani
huckabee
mccain
romney
thompson
arg
10/26-29
16
19
14
27
8
u of i
10/17-24
13
13
6
36
11
s.v.
10/12-14
13
12
5
27
10
ras
10/10-14
13
18
6
25
19
i.a.
10/2-3
16
13
10
24
13
selzer
10/1-3
11
12
7
29
18
polling group
date
biden
clinton
edwards
obama
richardson
arg
10/26-29
5
32
15
22
7
u of i
10/17-24
5
29
20
27
7
s.v.
10/12-14
6
28
20
23
9
ras
10/10-14
4
33
22
21
9
selzer
10/2-3
5
29
23
22
8
for all of the consistency that these polls show, questions linger about just how much stock to put in them. pollsters and strategists frequently stress how difficult it is to poll iowa (usually right after a poll is released that shows their guy or gal struggling). but, is it so hard? and, if so, why?
"to pollsters, nailing likely primary voters on political surveys can be challenging, but accurately identifying likely iowa caucus attendees and which candidate they support (not to mention their second choice) takes the degree of difficulty of our business to a whole new level," said neil newhouse, a partner with the republican polling firm public opinion strategies.
figuring out who is going to vote is always the most basic challenge for any pollster. past results provide a guide but can never be taken as foolproof as turnout dynamics change from election to election.
this is especially true in iowa's caucuses where an extremely small number of registered voters turn out to participate, voters can register the day of the caucus and turnout patterns fluctuate widely from caucus to caucus.
the challenge that anyone polling iowa must face then is how to select an accurate sample of voters. do you use the list of registered voters as your baseline? or do you use the far narrower caucus list, which lists those that have participated in the most recent caucuses, to create your sample?
each has its own problems.
as of nov. 1, there were 1,912,197 registered voters in iowa -- 600, 572 democrats, 574,571 republicans and 737,069 who affiliate with neither party. but, in the 2004 iowa democratic caucuses just 124,331 people participated.
so, if as a pollster you choose to use the registered voter list, it's uniquely possible that you are gathering opinions from people who won't even attend the caucuses. such a method can "over exaggerate and overestimate the potential for turnout," said john lapp, who ran iowa for former rep. dick gephardt (d-mo.) in 2004.
the caucus list approach then would seem to make more sense. after all, given the low turnout patterns for caucuses the best predictor of who will come in 2008 is who came in 2004, 2000 and so on.
not so fast. several democratic campaigns in 2004 adopted just that strategy -- planning for a voter universe of between 60,000 and 70,000 caucus goers based off the 59,404 who participated in the caucuses in 2000. the turnout -- 124, 331 -- more than doubled with nearly 50 percent attending the first caucus of their life.
"in general elections in iowa about three in four registered voters turn up at the polls," writes j. ann selzer, the director of the widely-respected iowa poll for the des moines register. "this makes polling much safer, as an additional 100,000 showing up unexpectedly will not affect the outcome all that much. but at a caucus, this would be tantamount to a tsunami." (selzer uses the registered voter file to develop her sample.)
in 2004 there was regular talk that pollsters using simply past caucus lists were missing the vast number of new caucus-goers -- especially young people -- who were going to turn out for former gov. howard dean (vt.). that prediction wound up being wrong as dean placed third in the caucuses.
but, the possibility of a major turnout spike for a single candidate is again being floated -- this time for sen. barack obama (ill.) whose campaign has spent considerable time in iowa trying to organize young people. "he does well with young voters and first-time caucus attendees and independents," writes selzer. "these are not the sort who show up most plentifully on caucus night."
the truth of the matter is that polling the iowa caucuses -- even more so than polling in other states -- is at least parts arts and science. deciding who will vote and who they will vote for is a predictive exercise that forces a pollster to look backwards (at past voting trends etc.) and forward (at the growth potential of the electorate) simultaneously.
looking for a port in this storm of information? the fix conducted an informal survey of pollsters in iowa and those who do considerable iowa polling, asking them which iowa poll they gave the most credence. the majority cited selzer's iowa poll as the most reliable over time; it was selzer, and selzer alone, who had the top four finishers in iowa in the correct order in her final poll before the 2004 caucuses.
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posted at 04:37 pm et, 11/ 9/2007
ron paul to hit iowa airwaves next week
on the heels of his record online fundraising haul this week, gop presidential candidate ron paul is reserving air time in iowa next week, according to sources familiar with the ad traffic. the candidate appears to be readying an ad buy in excess of $100,000.
could ron paul be the spoiler in the gop primaries? (ap photo)
paul, who began the 2008 campaign as an afterthought, has drawn considerable attention over the last few months for both his fervent online following and his ability to raise money over the internet. between july 1 and sept. 30, paul raised more than $5 million -- roughly the same amount that john mccain brought in and five times the total fundraising of mike huckabee during that period. more importantly, paul had $5.4 million in the bank at the end of the third quarter, a cash-on-hand total that surely increased after his $4 million day earlier this week.
with that kind of money in the bank, paul will be able to run an active media campaign. he is already up with ads in new hampshire. here's the latest:
first of all, you've gotta love the constitution as background motif. second, the ads may be slightly amateurish, but they get the job done. paul wants to make sure people know he wants to end the war in iraq and drastically curtail government's influence in every day life.
can paul win the gop nomination? no. but can he force the frontrunners to adjust their strategies to deal with him and his unique appeal? yes. in fact, that's already happening.
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posted at 02:57 pm et, 11/ 9/2007
clinton continues to haul in the endorsements
the news today that ohio gov. ted strickland has decided to endorse sen. hillary rodham clinton is in keeping with the party establishment's continued coalescence around the new york senator.
strickland, who had held a southern ohio house seat for much of the 1990s, became a hot commodity in the presidential sweepstakes when he cruised to the buckeye state governor's mansion in 2006 -- staking a claim as the most powerful elected official in one of the biggest presidential battleground states.
the endorsement by strickland comes less than a week after former vice president walter mondale threw his support behind clinton and further. altogether, the endorsements further signal -- as we wrote a few weeks back -- that party regulars are starting to line up behind clinton's candidacy under the belief that she represents their best chance at regaining the white house.
it's through that lens that strickland's endorsement is best and rightly viewed. ohio's presidential primary is set for march 4; it is hard to conceive of a scenario under which the nomination is not already decided by march. (that doesn't mean the fix didn't try in this piece from earlier in the week!)
in endorsing clinton now, strickland is affirming his belief that she is the democrat best positioned to carry his home state -- perhaps the most crucial battleground in the country. don't underestimate the "electability argument" as a potent story line in the democratic presidential primary fight this year.
in a conference call with reporters announcing his endorsement, strickland drove just that point home. "in spite of the admiration i have for her and her incredible skill set, i would not be making this endorsement if i didn't think she was the strongest and best candidate to win the presidency," strickland said, according to the associated press's beth fouhy. "i don't think it's likely a democrat or republican candidate will be successful without being successful in ohio. i understand the importance of ohio in the equation."
the timing of strickland's endorsement is aimed at refuting talk being fomented by clinton's rivals -- barack obama and john edwards most notably -- that nominating her would badly jeopardize the party's chances of taking back the white house.
for strickland, his decision to back clinton is certain to further bolster speculation about his chances at being chosen as the vice presidential nominee if the new york senator wins the nomination. strickland is the third potential veep to side with clinton; former gov. tom vilsack (iowa) and sen. evan bayh (ind.) are the others.
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posted at 01:11 pm et, 11/ 9/2007
new jersey rep. saxton to retire
rep. jim saxton, the twelve-term republican from new jersey's 3rd district, plans to retire after his current term, an announcement that could come as early as today, according to sources familiar with his decision.
saxton's retirement opens up a seat he has held since 1984 and creates another vulnerable open seat for house republicans. president bush narrowly carried the district with 51 percent in 2004, and democrats had been making noise about a potential challenge to saxton in 2008.
saxton is the 15th house republican to decide against seeking reelection; just three democrats have announced this will be their last term.
the swing nature of saxton's seat places in it a highly vulnerable category along with open gop seats in illinois's 11th district, arizona's 1st, minnesota's 3rd, new mexico's 1st and ohio's 15th and 16th.
more on this race next week.
update, 2:35 p.m. et: saxton made his decision official, according to the philadelphia inquirer.
here's nrcc chairman tom cole's statement on saxton's announcement:
washington--nrcc chairman tom cole made the following statement after rep. jim saxton (nj-03) announced his intention to retire from the u.s. house at the end of his current term:
"jim saxton has been a strong and effective representative for the people of new jersey's third congressional district for more than two decades, fighting for the important local issues of protecting new jersey's shoreline and natural resources. jim is a well-respected member of the republican conference and has been a staunch supporter of our nation's military and a leader in the fight for a more secure america. jim saxton has been a good friend since i served as the nrcc's executive director in 1991. we have served together on the house armed services committee for six years. he is a man i admire, respect and will miss. his district and our country have been fortunate to have the services of a man of his character and ability.
"the people of new jersey have demonstrated that they want a representative who fights for jobs, lower taxes and a stronger economy. the voters of south jersey will send another republican to the u.s. house of representatives in 2008 to build on jim saxton's formidable record."
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posted at 05:00 am et, 11/ 9/2007
the line: high stakes in 2010 govs races
with the 2007 elections behind us, the gubernatorial landscape for 2008 is decidedly sparse. there are just 11 races on the slate for next november, and only four of those -- indiana, missouri, washington and north carolina -- are expected to be truly competitive.
thus, the fix's eye has already started to wander to 2010, when 36 states will hold governors races. due to term limits, nearly half of those (17) will be open seats. the governors' landscape is all the more important when you consider that the winners in 2010 will exert considerable influence over the decennial redistricting process that will reshape the lines of congressional and legislative districts across the country.
given the redistricting factor, fast-growing states like arizona (where democrat janet napolitano can't run again in 2010) and georgia (where republican sonny perdue is likewise term limited) will likely be crucial in determining the fate of the two parties at the national level for decades to come.
democrats will also face some tough open-seat tests in areas not considered very friendly for their party -- oklahoma, kansas and wyoming to name three. the question for democrats is whether the party's inroads in these ruby red states are the result of a single popular politician or a sign of a real awakening in areas that have long been ceded to the gop.
republicans are not without their own challenges -- rhode island's open seat being the most prominent. but all in all, the 2010 cycle could well be the start of a republican revival at the state level.
although the 2010 elections are nearly three years off, most races are already well underway.
take, for example, pennsylvania, where gov. ed rendell (d) is term-limited out of office in 2010. former sen. rick santorum is actively considering the race on the republican side, as is 2006 gubernatorial nominee lynn swann. the democratic names mentioned lack the star quality of santorum or swann but should be favored given the state's underlying demographics.
then there's new mexico, where national democrats tried -- apparently unsuccessfully -- to woo lt. gov. diane denish (d) to run for the seat being left open next year by sen. pete domenici (r). denish seems more interested in being governor in 2010, especially considering that her intraparty rival -- albuquerque mayor martin chavez -- is running for the senate. (the albuquerque journal, bless its heart, has already commissioned a 2010 governors poll.)
michigan, too, has already seen considerable jockeying, as state attorney general mike cox, secretary of state terri lynn land, 2006 senate nominee mike bouchard and 2006 gubernatorial nominee dick devos are already circling one another for the gop nomination. lt. gov. john cherry is the most prominent democrat mentioned.
we could go on and on and, well, on. but before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let's take a quick look at the top 5 races for this cycle.
5. ???: we just don't see a race that could be competitive enough to include in this spot just yet. maybe the open delaware seat? then again, maybe not. any thoughts? the comments section is open.
4. north carolina: all of the money and name identification is on the democratic side, as lt. gov. bev perdue and state attorney general treasurer richard moore prepare to battle it out. republicans have a handful of little-known candidates. sure, the republican presidential nominee is almost certain to carry the tarheel state next year, but voters have shown they prefer democrats in the governor's mansion. (previous ranking: n/a)
3. washington: former state sen. dino rossi (r) made it official late last month: he's running again against gov. christine gregoire (d). given the narrowness of rossi's loss in 2004, this should be another great race -- although gregoire is aided by the power of incumbency and the democratic winds blowing nationally. (previous ranking: 5)
2. indiana: the fix spent a day in indianapolis late last month and had a chance to see the two democrats running for governor -- former rep. jill long thompson and architect jim schellinger. long thompson is steady if not spectacular and relies heavily on her personal story. (at the event i attended, she mentioned she had been raised on a farm in answer to nearly every question asked of her.) schellinger is the more charismatic of the two but is clearly a political novice with few policy proposals behind his rhetoric. gov. mitch daniels (r) is a savvy campaigner and is already aggressively working to remind hoosier voters of the promises he kept since taking office. (previous ranking: 4)
1. missouri: even republicans acknowledge that gov. matt blunt (r) is behind right now in his reelection race against state attorney general jay nixon (d). and blunt's handling of questions regarding the firing of his deputy counsel has been less than stellar. still, this is missouri, where statewide political races are almost always decided by a point or two. (previous ranking: 3)
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posted at 06:05 pm et, 11/ 8/2007
kentucky senate: mcconnell's ads
yesterday we reported that senate minority leader mitch mcconnell (r-ky.) was preparing to launch the first ads of his 2008 campaign on friday.
today we got hold of the 60-second ads -- running in the lexington and louisville markets.
here's the spot running in louisville:
and here's the lexington commercial:
both ads aim to turn mcconnell's position as leader of his party in the senate into a positive for his campaign, noting that mcconnell is only the second of kentucky's 65 u.s. senators to hold such a leadership post. they feature an extended comparison between mcconnell and alben barkley (the only other kentucky senator to lead his party) and even feature a testimonial from barkley's grandson.
it's an interesting tact given that democratic strategists believe mcconnell's role as gop leader is the key to their chances of beating him next november. the next year is likely to be dominated by the two sides seeking to define what mcconnell's leadership post means to kentucky. is it a sign that he is a rubberstamp for the bush agenda? or a unique opportunity to bring home the bacon for kentucky?
mcconnell won't be making his argument in a vacuum. today the democratic senatorial campaign committee launched a web ad seeking to tie mcconnell to ousted gov. ernie fletcher (r-ky.).
and americans united, a progressive interest group, is up with television ads of their own hitting mcconnell for allegedly blocking the passage of a children's heath insurance bill.
posted by chris cillizza | permalink
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